A Flood Risk Management Model to Identify Optimal Defence Policies in Coastal Areas Considering Uncertainties in Climate Projections
نویسندگان
چکیده
Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to flooding from heavy rainfall, sea storm surge, or a combination of the two. Recent studies project higher intensity and frequency rains, progressive level rise continuing over next decades. Pre-emptive optimal flood defense policies that adaptively address climate change needed. However, future projections have significant uncertainty due multiple factors: (a) CO2 emission scenarios; (b) uncertainties in modelling; (c) discount factor changes market fluctuations; (d) uncertain migration population growth dynamics. Here, methodology is proposed identify design timing structures which 21st century explicitly considered probabilistically. A multi-objective optimization model developed minimize both cost defence infrastructure system hydraulic risk expressed by Expected Annual Damage (EAD). The decision variables problem size implementation. accounts for joint probability density functions extreme surge rise, as well damages, determined dynamically state considering consequences failure, using water depth–damage curve related land use (Corine Land Cover); depth calculated model. new dominant sorting genetic algorithm (NSGAII) used solve optimization. case study presented Pontina Plain (Lazio Italy), coastal region, originally swamp reclaimed about hundred years ago, rich urban centers farms. set adaptation policies, quantifying constructions different scenarios belonging Pareto obtained NSGAII identified such mitigate aid makers.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Water
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2073-4441']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w14091481